Are you Ready for the Coming Oil Sands Growth Cycle?
After more than a decade without major greenfield oil sands projects, the momentum in Alberta’s oil sands region is shifting. Over the next decade, considerable growth in production and related economic activity appears increasingly likely. For businesses, suppliers, service providers, and investors in and around Fort McMurray, the practical question is straightforward: Are you prepared?
Expanded Pipeline Capacity
A key driver is planned and proposed growth in export capacity. Incremental pipeline capacity under discussion totals more than 2 million barrels per day. This includes:
A proposed new West Coast Oil Pipeline of approximately 1 million barrels per day, intended to provide direct access to Asian markets and reduce reliance on U.S. markets.
Trans Mountain system optimizations adding roughly 300,000 barrels per day (with initial increments targeted in the near term and further capacity later in the decade).
The Bridger/Prairie Connector project (a reworked southbound concept involving South Bow and Bridger Pipeline) targeting around 550,000 barrels per day.
Enbridge Mainline and related expansions in the range of up to approximately 400,000 barrels per day.
These projects, if advanced on the timelines currently discussed, would materially ease the egress constraints that have limited growth for years.
Policy Shift and the Pathways Framework
Federal policies long viewed as barriers to oil sands expansion are being recalibrated through a series of federal-provincial and industry agreements. The Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (November 2025), subsequent implementation arrangements, and the July 2026 trilateral Memorandum of Understanding with the Oil Sands Alliance (Canadian Natural, Suncor, Cenovus, Imperial Oil, and ConocoPhillips) link support for new pipeline infrastructure and production growth to advancement of the Pathways carbon capture and storage project.
In exchange for industry commitments to meaningful emissions reductions—beginning with approximately 6 million tonnes per annum net through Pathways by 2035, with further staged reductions thereafter—governments have indicated support in several areas, including:
Streamlined impact assessment and approval processes, with commitments to shorter federal review timelines for projects of national interest and Alberta’s 120-day approval timeline for qualified projects.
Extension of federal carbon capture, utilization, and storage investment tax credits to 2035, along with related fiscal supports.
Adjustments to industrial carbon pricing stringency under Alberta’s TIER system for producers that meet agreed emissions milestones.
Abeyance or suspension of certain federal electricity regulations in Alberta pending further carbon-pricing arrangements.
Establishment of regulatory working groups focused on reducing barriers to oil sands investment and improving the efficiency of relevant statutes and regulations.
Financial and policy supports intended to underpin the production growth needed to fill new and expanded pipelines.
The overall direction is toward greater policy certainty and a more competitive framework for responsible production growth.
Producer Expansion Potential Near Fort McMurray
On the production side, major operators are pointing to material long-term upside. Imperial Oil has highlighted its Aspen, Clarke Creek, and Corner assets—high-quality in-situ opportunities in the Fort McMurray region. Together with advancing recovery technologies (with a pilot at Aspen targeted for early 2027), these assets hold the potential to support 450,000 of barrels per day of additional production over time. Other producers, including Canadian Natural and Suncor, also retain significant expansion optionality at existing operations.
Combined with improved egress and a more supportive policy environment, these factors point to a genuine change in momentum.
Energy Security and a Global Perspective
From a global perspective, the strategic case for oil sands growth has strengthened. Energy security concerns arising from the Russia-Ukraine war and ongoing tensions involving Iran and the broader Middle East have elevated the value of large-scale, reliable, and politically stable energy supplies.
At Franklin Law Chambers we have long held the view that these fundamentals—resource scale, operational longevity, and reliability—would eventually support renewed expansion once infrastructure and policy constraints eased.
The world has changed. Energy security is now at the forefront of both policy and investment decisions. Fort McMurray and the surrounding region are well positioned for a strong growth cycle.
How We Can Help
Growth of this nature brings both opportunity and complexity from a legal perspective—commercial contracts, corporate structuring, joint ventures, cross-border issues, and dispute resolution among them. At Franklin Law Chambers we combine deep local knowledge of the oil sands community with a global disputes and advisory perspective.
We are here to help you assess readiness, structure transactions, navigate legal processes, and manage risk as the region moves into its next phase. If your business is preparing for increased activity, we would be pleased to discuss how we can support you.